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Michael Wagner Executive | Chief Marketing Officer | Expert Brand Builder | Global Business Driver | 14,000 + Connections |Miami’s housing market could be in for a tough 2017
Miami’s real estate market experienced the first wave of a slowdown in condo sales at the start of 2016, with some experts warning it could lead to a recession by the end of the year. Twelve months later, South Florida real estate didn’t implode, but the industry is beginning to feel the pinch of a bear market.
As we head into 2017, developers, brokers and investors believe construction financing for new projects will be harder to come by and condo sales will continue at a snail’s pace.
The Real Deal spoke to major players in South Florida’s real estate game to weigh in on what to expect from now through next December.
In downtown Miami, a saturation of projects marketed to buyers looking for units as investments has created too much inventory, said Dan Kodsi, developer of Paramount Miami Worldcenter and Paramount Bay.
“I really don’t believe in cycles, but I do think we are going to see some dips,” he added. “You will not see a mass sellout because these are not people who can’t make their mortgage payments. You will likely see these investor buyers taking their units off the market and renting them out.”
Arnaud Karsenti, 13th Floor Investments managing principal, also believes the condo market is oversupplied. “I don’t think it is dead by any means, but it will soften,” Karsenti said. “We remain bullish on anything that is residential or mixed-use. We like properties that benefit from Florida’s greatest trend, which is its population growth.”
Miami’s urban core currently has so much inventory, it is going to take three years to sell all those units, said Mika Mattingly, executive vice president for Colliers International South Florida.
Still, she believes downtown Miami is poised for strong growth compared to Brickell. “You will see more movement in downtown Miami,” Mattingly said. “For example, Centro Lofts has no parking and no waterfront. Yet, they are basically almost entirely sold out at close $500 a square foot. You are really going to see an urban dweller who wants to live in downtown.”
Although some observers believe 2017 will be the beginning of a new cycle on an upward trajectory. Jay Parker, Douglas Elliman’s Florida brokerage CEO, said the slowdown in 2016was heavily influenced by the presidential election. “All the hostility and volatility caused buyers to pause,” he said. “People who would normally be in the market for real estate, whether for investment or transitional move, put the brakes on.”
Parker said he expects the market will benefit from pent-up demand in the first two quarters of 2017. “I don’t think anyone has a crystal ball, but an anticipated continued rise in interest rates will force the hand of those who otherwise don’t feel a necessity to buy,” he added.
Taylor Collins, a partner with Two Roads Development, said the first two quarters of 2016 were slow, but there was steady growth in the third and fourth quarters that will carry over into the coming year. “The market took a deep breath in 2016,” Collins said. “I don’t think you are going to see any of these mega projects with 800 to 1,000 units happen in 2017. I don’t think those can keep up with the absorption. But you will see more of the smaller, high-end boutique products.”
However, construction financing is going to get tighter in 2017, Collins warned. “Lenders are requiring you to be 50 percent sold before you can start drawing on a construction loan,” he said. “They are very aware of what happened in the last cycle in 2008 and 2009. Those days are gone.”
Ezra Katz, founder and CEO of Aztec Group, said he foresees construction financing slowing down dramatically next year.
“Underwriting standards are changing and lenders are becoming more conservative,” he said. “Lenders have a lot of loans on their books. I think projects that are contemplated as new construction and have not been financed will find it very challenging, particularly the Johnnies-come-lately or new kids in town.”
Read the original article on The Real Deal. Copyright 2017.
About Michael Wagner Chief Marketing Officer Vero Beach Florida
Highly accomplished, visionary executive with proven ability to impact financial, social, and political goals through commitment to global issues, innovation, and diversity. Results-oriented, decisive leader offering 15+ years of success in sales, operations, and marketing. Deliver excellence in execution and developing people, utilizing international / multicultural experience to provide unique perspective and creative solutions, achieving high performance within diverse organizational cultures. Demonstrate rapid advancement based on high performance, with the ability to quickly transfer skills across industries. Self-starter with strong entrepreneurial spirit, high integrity, and solid work ethic; creative, highly analytical, and able to successfully manage multiple concurrent projects with keen attention to detail, excellent organization, and outstanding persuasive skills. Able to skillfully inspire, motivate, and lead teams for consistently winning outcomes.
No Coverage for Tony Stewart in Ward Race Car Death: Axis Insurance Michael Wagner Palm Beach Gardens Executive
No Coverage for Tony Stewart in Ward Race Car Death: Axis Insurance
By Andrew G. Simpson | September 25, 2015
Axis Insurance says the lawsuit brought against racing star Tony Stewart, whose car struck and killed another racer during a New York event in 2014, is not covered by the insurance policies it issued for Stewart.
Axis maintains that its combined liability insurance policies do not cover claims of one race car driver versus another, the specific race in New York where the accident occurred, or the race car Stewart was driving.
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Axis filed for a declaratory judgment last Friday in the case brought against Stewart by the parents of the deceased driver, Kevin Ward Jr. The insurer says it should not have to defend or indemnify Stewart in the Ward case.
The 20-year-old Ward was hit and killed by Stewart after leaving his vehicle and walking onto the course during a racing event in upstate New York on Aug. 9, 2014.
Axis issued three policies to Stewart: primary commercial general liability (with $1 million each occurrence and $2 million aggregate limits), commercial excess liability ($4 million) and an auto policy ($1 million).
The primary CGL contains an endorsement for participant legal liability for motorsports that contains this exclusion:
This insurance does not apply to claims or actions brought by one racing vehicle driver against another racing vehicle driver. However in the event of such a claim or action, coverage remains in effect for the First Named Insured and any other applicable insureds; however, coverage is specifically excluded for the racing vehicle driver who is the object of such claim or action.
The CGL policy also limits coverage to specified events: World of Outlaws (65 events), USAC Sprint (30 events) and USAC Silver Crown (10 events).
The August race where Ward was killed was an Empire Super Sprints event at Canandaigua Motorsports Park. Axis says Empire Super Sprints are not among specified covered events.
Axis also claims that its $4 million excess policy for Stewart follows the provisions, exclusions and limitation of the primary coverage and is thus also not triggered in this case.
Finally, Axis argues, the $1 million auto policy for Tony Stewart Racing does not apply because the “super sprint vehicle” allegedly driven by Stewart during the event does not qualify as an auto under the policy and because this policy contains an exclusion for racing. Super sprints are a particular type of high-powered racing vehicle.
The suit by the Ward family alleges four causes of action: wrongful death, terror pain and suffering prior to death, intentional/reckless conduct and gross negligence. It seeks unspecified damages.
The Wards contend that Stewart could have “easily acted reasonably and with prudence” to avoid striking their son as 19 other drivers did while the race was under yellow caution flags.
If there is a crash or disabled car during a race, officials put the race in a state of caution using announcements and yellow flags. When a race is under caution, drivers must slow down and move away from any hazard.
The Wards’ complaint says Stewart is a successful professional racer and alleges he is also known for his “temper and outbursts” on and off the track.
Michael Wagner Vero Beach Florida Chief Marketing Executive
Michael Wagner Vero Beach Florida Chief Marketing Officer Financial Services Industry
Trends Shaping Financial Services This Year and Beyond
What’s ahead for the financial services industry is always a source of speculation. Will regulatory compliance pressures ease? How will global economic and political issues affect the sector?
Absent a crystal ball, most of these questions cannot yet be answered. On the other hand, certain trends seem likely to gain further momentum.
Following are five trends shaping the outlook for thefinancial services industry this year and beyond.
1. An ongoing focus on regulatory compliance
Accounting and finance leaders don’t anticipate compliance demands easing anytime soon. Almost all (98 percent) of the U.S. financial executives surveyed for Benchmarking the Accounting & Finance Function from Robert Half and Financial Executives Research Foundation believe their regulatory compliance burden will either increase or, at a minimum, stay the same in the near future.
Aggressive enforcement actions pertaining to anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, enhanced capital requirements and other regulatory pressures have led financial institutions to increase their hiring of risk,compliance and internal audit professionals. Another way some financial institutions are responding to heightened regulatory scrutiny is by taking steps to reduce their risk profiles, which may involve shedding certain products or services that introduce added risks without sufficient payoff.
2. Increased lending
With the healthier economy and job market, banks are expanding lending across the board. Bright spots include commercial real estate lending, as well as an expansion of consumer credit.
The mortgage market also remains strong, spurred by both new loan origination and refinancing activity. In addition, continued low interest rates and the likely easing of underwriting standards may further fuel mortgage lending and refinancing to consumers at all income levels.
3. Disruptive technologies
The financial services industry continues to face disruptions to traditional ways of doing business. The growth in smartphones and other mobile platforms has made banking on the go commonplace.
In addition, the emergence of mobile payment solutions and digital wallet services are reducing reliance on traditional currency and credit cards, as well as introducing new competition in payment and lending services. Companies that move quickly to capitalize on the market opportunities presented by new technological tools are more likely to survive and prosper in this rapidly changing environment.
4. Information security concerns
Mobile technologies, cloud computing and other emerging tools offer innovative new ways to do business and improve the customer experience. Yet, they also present additional challenges for protecting sensitive data. Financial services firms, which are especially vulnerable to information security threats, must find better ways to effectively manage these risks.
5. Hiring challenges
As the needs of financial services firms have evolved, hiring professionals with the requisite skills has become increasingly challenging. Like their counterparts in other industries, financial services CFOs continue to experience recruiting difficulties.
To address talent shortages and access in-demand skills, banks and other financial institutions are commonly working with consultants and project professionals who can provide specialized subject matter expertise and support key business initiatives. Organizations also are finding they must offer improvedcompensation packages to attract and retain top performers.
These are just some of the factors likely to impact the financial services sector this year. What are the predominant trends you’re seeing?
Photo credit: The Wall Street Bull, by herval
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